Week 9
The Vigorish: because it’s Friday and you’re certainly not working today.
College Football
Matt: The game I’m picking is not one for coastal elites like me: the Ole Miss Rebels (yeah, those kind of rebels) host the Flames of Jerry Falwell-founded Liberty University. If you’re reading this, then you know how I feel about these things, so there’s no need to rehash it. Instead, let’s talk about how Ole Miss is favored by only 9.5 at home despite their only losses coming on the road at the hands of Alabama and Auburn.
Matt Corral has been one of the nation’s very best quarterbacks this season – saying he’s 5th in the country in QBR doesn’t even do him justice given that he’s also the Mississippi Football Team’s leading rusher, too. And if Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl later this season and subsequently makes the College Football Playoff (and assuming Georgia doesn’t magically collapse), Ole Miss will be looking at a Sugar Bowl invitation if it keeps winning. Plenty to play for here. Great color scheme on the alternate helmets, too.
As for Liberty, I’m not sure how many of their starters would even be a scholarship player for Ole Miss other than junior Malik Willis, their talented dual-threat quarterback. This line is in single digits chiefly because of how horrendously banged-up Mississippi is (that includes Corral, though by all accounts he’s a go for Saturday) but even an entire team of just their second-stringers would still be able to handle Liberty. There’s levels to this game, folks, and Liberty’s a few below the Fightin’ Kiffins.
Matt’s Saturday pick: OLE MISS (-9.5) over Liberty
Andy: A few weeks ago, I surmised that North Carolina was likely to cover a 14.5 point spread against Georgia Tech. In fact, what happened in that game is that the Yellow Jackets defeated the Tar Heels by 23 points. Let’s be honest with each other. I’ve struggled on Saturdays.
But that week was not especially uncommon for the Tar Heels. They are 3-5 against the spread this year, following a 10 point loss last week as 3.5 point dogs.
And here they are, giving 2.5 points to undefeated Wake Forest at home. Fine, I’m a sucker: Give me the top ten team that’s an underdog on the road in a divisional game.
Wake is just 4-4 against the spread, sure. But their failures to cover include a 32-point victory against Old Dominion and a 25-point win against Norfolk State, neither of which concern me much, and a 3-point win against Syracuse, who, at 8-1, has the best record against the spread in the country.
The Demon Deacons have been awful on defense. And they haven’t exactly played the toughest slate, though would you believe that at 98th in the nation, their strength of schedule is slightly ahead of Cincinnati?
While we’re here, let’s remember an important moment in Wake Forest-UNC history.
Andy’s Saturday pick: Wake Forest (+2.5) over UNC
NFL
Matt: Right off the bat: the Bengals gave up 34 points to the Mike White Experience and his Jets last week. There is no escaping that truth and we have to acknowledge it. What this pick presupposes is, what if they didn’t?
Okay, that’s a little disingenuous. What I am saying is, maybe we give Cincy a pass for letting its guard down last week against an abominable franchise starting its untested backup quarterback. It happens. If we put that result aside, laying less than a field goal at home against a Browns team that might charitably be described as beleaguered sure seems tempting!
We know that Baker Mayfield is hurt (and even when he’s healthy I think he’s Not That Good Actually) and they’ve struggled to score points lately. Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t playing, because reasons, and I do not believe this will be a case of addition by subtraction. What’s left but a short-handed 4-4 team that can’t score and hasn’t beaten anyone good all season?
In contrast, the Bengals seem like a team on the rise. Ja’Marr Chase is the most exciting young receiver in football and the on-fire chemistry he had with Joe Burrow at LSU has translated to the NFL. Burrow himself has shown more than a few flashes of being the guy we thought he was, and it’s not a reach to say he’s already in the top half of starting quarterbacks in the league. Yeah, they can cover 2.5 at home against Cleveland.
Matt’s Sunday pick: BENGALS (-2.5) over Browns
Andy: The Eagles’ destruction of the Lions last week, I’m afraid, was a mirage. The Lions are not good at full strength, and they are severely injury depleted right now. So the Eagles tore them apart, just as folks in Philly began discussing whether Nick Sirianni could be fired after his first season as the team’s head coach.
But the team did not win the way they want to win, and no part of me thinks anyone associated with the franchise — meddling Owner Jeff Lurie, middling-at-best GM Howie Roseman, Ted Lasso impersonator Sirianni or anyone on his offensive staff — is prepared to become a run-first team. For years, everyone with the team has stressed that the surest path to sustained success is a dominant passing game.
And Jalen Hurts was no better as a passer last week than he has been all year. Hurts only threw it 14 times, so it’s no surprise that he only completed three balls to receivers. But in between moving the ball on the ground with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard (sustainable?), he was back to bailing out of clean pockets, clutching the ball while looking at open receivers across the middle, and missing on routine passes.
The league’s worst run defense is coming to town, and the bet here is that WIP callers are ranting Monday morning about how the Eagles nonetheless abandoned the run… again. On the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert’s recent slide has come against Wink Martindale and Bill Belichick disguising blitzes and forcing him to unload early, dragging his intended air yards down to the bottom third of passers, negating his brilliant arm. The Eagles defense, meanwhile? Only two teams in the league blitz less often.
Andy’s Sunday pick: Chargers (-1.5) over EAGLES
Keeping score:
Matt: 9-5
Andy: 5-5
What do you think of the picks? Leave a comment.