Week 4
Last week was a rough one for The Vig. That just means we’re due.
College Football
Andy: I made a lot of mistakes last week. We don’t need to talk about them. I was not alone. Lots of other people erred last week too, for instance riding with Stanford as the trendy pick to give Chip Kelly and UCLA trouble at home. (If I’m honest, yea I also thought that seemed like a good idea, my backup ideas last week were just as bad as the ones we published.) But it doesn’t seem like the world has adjusted much from that mistake, with the desert making Oregon just an eight point favorite at Stanford.
Oregon has been great this year. After a slow start against Fresno, when they still won by a touchdown, they beat Ohio State at the Shoe and more than doubled up Arizona last week. Chula Vista’s C.J. Verdell is on the Ed Cota All-Stars after managing an eight year college career, and paces an offense that flirts with 40 every week. I’m happy to lay eight against a Stanford team that still seems to be collecting respect from a win over… USC?
Andy's Saturday pick: Oregon (-8) over STANFORD
Matt: One of the last things I ever want to do is pick Michigan. Their fanbase is terrible. It’s also large. Michigan alums are all over this country and they are uniformly bad fans. Imagine for a moment the typical New York Yankees fan – snooty yet uncouth, carrying a sense of superiority akin to the first kid in their class to get money from the tooth fairy. It’s lousy, but their chosen franchise is (unfortunately) highly successful.
Michigan fans are pretty much the same (the sense of superiority might even be turned up a notch, if you can believe it), but their team isn’t any good. They haven’t won even a piece of a conference title in 17 years! They’ve won exactly one national title in the last 62 years, and that was 24 years ago! Imagine if that’s how the Yankees were – wouldn’t it be just preposterous for their fans to act the way they do? But that’s the Michigan fanbase, strutting around like they’re Alabama when they’re really just BYU. Remind your local Michigan fan of these things when next you see them.
All that being said, I keep coming back to Michigan getting 2 points at Wisconsin this week and I just have to jump on it. Michigan’s played a bit of a soft schedule (Washington’s not any good and Rutgers is…Rutgers) but they’ve taken care of business so far. The same can’t be said for the Badgers, who dropped their opener at home to Penn State and got embarrassed by Notre Dame on neutral turf last week. I expect the Wolverines to get the job done in a low-scoring affair. Sigh.
Matt’s Saturday pick: Michigan (+2) over WISCONSIN
NFL
Andy: All but three NFC teams have reached a conference championship in the last 25 years. These three teams might as well have not existed for a quarter century. The Lions surprise no one. That fits the bill. And while Washington Football Team fans spent the first half of that prison in a delusional fugue state, they and the rest of the country seem now to understand how pathetic they’ve been. The other useless team? The Cowboys. As a child of the ‘90s, this still feels strange to say. I luxuriate in saying it.
If nothing else, though, the Cowboys are now built to be a very good regular season team, and after dismantling the Eagles last week I’m not sure they’re getting enough credit. The defense isn’t a special unit, but Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons have emerged as elite players. The offense can score consistently in the air or on the ground. Dak Prescott is healthy and looks to be in more control of the offense than ever before. I believe in the Panthers, and the Sam Darnold Redemption Tour, but they’re more than a point and a half worse than this Dallas team.
Andy's Sunday pick: COWBOYS (-4.5) over Panthers
Matt: 0, 6, 14. Are these the first three numbers for this week’s Powerball? No, they’re the point totals the Jets have mustered so far this season. There are only so many ways I can tell you that the Jets are bad. You already know. Let’s move on.
Here’s the thing: they’re playing the Titans this week. Tennessee’s top wideouts are dealing with a hamstring problem (A.J. Brown) and a leg issue (Julio Jones). Both are listed as questionable and might not play. Even if they do, I expect they will be somewhat hobbled. And Ryan Tannehill isn’t the type of quarterback who’s going to turn the second- and third-string WRs into stars, you know? Derrick Henry is still there, of course, but I just don’t expect an offensive explosion from the Titans this week.
And then there’s the Jets offense.
The oddsmakers in their infinite wisdom have set the over/under at 44. Barring some defensive touchdowns or epic kick returns, I don’t see how these two teams get there this week. Like a tall man afraid of hitting his head on the ceiling if he sleeps in the top bunk, I’ll grimace and take the under.
Matt’s Sunday pick: Under 44, Titans at Jets
Keeping score:
Matt: 1-3
Andy: 1-3
What do you think of the picks? Leave a comment.