Week 16
Andy is dealing with Holiday Stuff™ so it’s just Matt again—but what would Christmas be without somebody you know spending it alone?
College Football
Matt: “Expect a sweep,” I wrote last week, practically begging the gambling gods to give me an 0-fer. I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve tempted fate in this space, but I do know exactly how many times it’s worked out for me (zero). You might wonder why I keep doing it, and I don’t really have an answer for you. Some years ago, I was in Vegas with a few friends when I found myself in the midst of a particularly notable run of success at the blackjack table—the kind of heater you don’t forget—whereupon one of my friends jumped into the table in the seat next to mine, and my luck immediately turned south. I protested his continued participation at the table, pointing out in clear detail what had happened to me before and after, but he wouldn’t hear it. He only shook his head and replied that his sitting there had no impact on my odds of winning any single hand of blackjack, that any suggestion to the contrary was hocus-pocus nonsense. My luck at that table remained sour from that point onward.
I share this story to make two points: (1) indeed, how arrogant we are to think that our trifling words and actions have any sort of impact on events empirically out of our control (like football games hundreds or even thousands of miles away), but also (2) don’t be like that guy from the story because nobody likes a cooler. Oh, you find those two points paradoxical? Welcome to gambling, friend.
This week there’s only one game on Saturday (pity poor Georgia State and Ball State who have to spend Christmas Day battling in the forlorn TaxAct Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama) so I expanded my window to the bowls played from Friday through Tuesday, ultimately settling on the EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl played on Christmas Eve. Taking Hawai’i plus 8.5 wasn’t a hard call as the Rainbow Warriors, who receive an automatic bid to this one whenever they’re bowl eligible, are 5-2 at home this season. They square off against a 6-6 Memphis team that’s struggled mightily on the road all season, and Memphis to Honolulu is a hell of a trek. All that plus 8.5 free points? Mele Kalikimaka.
Matt’s Friday pick: Hawaii (+8.5) over Memphis
NFL
Matt: It’s not an easy time to be picking NFL spreads. I don’t know who the hell is playing, not playing, in the protocol, not in the protocol, vaxxed, not vaxxed—and even if I did, between me writing this (Thursday) and game time, an entire team could test positive for covid. So what do we do in this situation? My solution: find the slimmest spread and flip a coin. Well, that’s an exaggeration, I’m not going to flip a coin. I’m going to let my rules dictate my action, a strategy so effective that I’m under .500 picking NFL games this season. One might even say that I’ve become the Andy of Sundays.
But it’s Christmas so let’s stay optimistic here, folks. Two games are pick’ems at the time of writing: Broncos at Raiders and Jaguars at Jets. Our rules say to eliminate the divisional game, so DEN/LV is out. Our rules also say to never bet on the Jets. That leaves just one choice: your 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure, why not? Both the Jags and the Jets are 4-10 against the spread this season so maybe it actually is like flipping a coin.
You don’t need me to wax poetic about the lousy seasons these two have had. I will point out, though, that last week I wrote that it was too soon to put action on the Jags because they would be only 3 days removed from Urban Meyer’s firing. Well, now it’ll be 10 days, and I think addition by subtraction is finally in play. It also just feels right, doesn’t it? The Jags have had the saddest, most disastrous season of anybody, but now it’s Christmas weekend, they’re finally free of their idiot coach, and they’re playing the bumbling Jets. The script is written for a feel-good win here.
Matt’s Sunday pick: Jaguars (even) over JETS
Keeping score:
Matt: 17-15
Andy: 10-13