Week 15
No Andy this week, so expect a sweep!
College Football
Matt: It’s the most wonderful time of year, the hap-happiest season of all—that’s right, it’s Bowl Season. I love bowl games. I especially love the minor bowls: nonsensical pairings, preposterous sponsorships, half-filled (or less) stadiums, college students spending most of their holiday break preparing for and playing in a meaningless game that almost no one will watch, it’s all just the best.
Some bowls do feature fun destinations that the players might enjoy visiting, like Hawaii, the Bahamas, or big cities like New York or LA. And then there are the bowls that send you to Boise or Albuquerque in the middle of December.
The pick this week features the latter kind: the PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl, where Fresno State is laying 11.5 against UTEP. El Paso’s basically in New Mexico so this is almost a home game for UTEP. The trouble for UTEP, though, is that they aren’t good. The combined record of the six FBS teams UTEP has beaten is 21-51. They have zero wins against teams that finished the season with a winning record. They’re scoring an average of just 0.4 more points than they’re giving up.
Fresno State, on the other hand, went a solid 9-3 with wins against ranked-at-the-time UCLA and San Diego State, and losses at Oregon, at Hawaii (always tricky), and against Boise State. This is a good, solid team that plays well on both sides of the ball. I’d add that they’re well-coached, but Fresno’s coach took the Washington job a couple of weeks ago, and if there’s one thing that concerns me about this game (other than the characteristic randomness of minor bowl game outcomes), it’s that. Still, though, this is a team that is substantially better than UTEP any way you slice it. I’d expect them to win this game handily even if they had hired Andy to take over.
Matt’s Saturday pick: Fresno State (-11.5) over UTEP
NFL
Matt: Like everyone else, I am sorely tempted to take the Jags this week. The potential for addition by subtraction here is enormous, and for proof, look no further than the line on Jags-Texans jumping by a full point less than 12 hours after Urban Meyer’s firing. And speaking of Urban, someone asked me if he’s the worst case of a college coach jumping to the pros in NFL history, and my response is that he might simply be the worst coaching hire of any kind in NFL history. But a lot of digital ink will be spilled elsewhere over that very topic in the coming days, and that’s not why you’re here. Getting back to the matter at hand, I ultimately can’t pull the trigger on the Jags laying 4.5—they are so beaten-down and desultory that I think it will take more than three days to shake off the Meyer stink.
Instead, I’m landing on the Packers as 5.5-point favorites at Bawltimore, hon. No outcome would surprise me here, which tells you how little I liked any of the other games on this week’s slate. What can one even say about the Ravens? They’ve been all over the place and there’s no telling how they’ll play on any given Sunday. But the key here for us is that Lamar Jackson has not, at the time of me writing this, practiced all week. If he doesn’t play, we’re in great shape. If he does, I expect that he will be at least somewhat hobbled by the ankle injury. Is there anyone else on that offense who puts even the slightest bit of fear in the hearts of opponents?
Since the answer is an unequivocal no, we will gladly take the consistency that the Packers have exhibited all season, even if we do so while smirking about the epic fall from grace their quarterback has brought upon himself over the last 12 months.
Matt’s Sunday pick: Packers (-5.5) over RAVENS
Keeping score:
Matt: 17-13
Andy: 10-13
What do you think of the picks? Leave a comment.