Week 14
It is a great week to drink some egg nog, watch the triple option and laugh at Mike McCarthy. Thank you for sticking with us this year, despite Andy’s performance.
NFL
Matt: No college games this wee---hey wait a minute!
College Football
Matt: Aha! How could I forget? There is one single, solitary college football game left before bowl season begins next week: the Army-Navy Game.
Navy’s a bit better than their 3-8 record would suggest. They’ve played within one score of good teams like Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU. They lost to East Carolina on a last-second field goal. They’ve got wins against bowl-eligible UCF and Tulsa. They’ve also played better opposition overall than Army has by virtue of its full conference schedule in the AAC plus Notre Dame.
Army is a pretty good team. They don’t play in a conference but I suspect they wouldn’t be too far off their 8-3 record if they played in one of the Group of 5 conferences. They’ve got five wins against bowl-bound schools and they played Wisconsin and Wake Forest pretty tough. Both Army and Navy run a version of the flexbone offense but Army runs it better by every metric. On paper, Army is certainly the better team here.
I went back and forth between Army laying 7.5 or going with the over at 34.5 and to tell you the truth I’m still conflicted. I think Army is more than a touchdown better than Navy but that O/U is really bothering me. Army’s averaging 35.5 points a game, enough to cover the O/U by itself. Navy is giving up nearly 30 points a game so it isn’t like Army is facing a particularly stout defense. What gives? I can’t just let it slide and I have to bet it. Probably for the best anyway.
Matt’s Saturday pick: Over 34.5, Army vs Navy
Andy: Matt has, frankly, made such a compelling case for the over on this game that I can’t take my eyes off it. But in the spirit of this whole thing, I’m going to find another bet.
Crucially, this approach also has a better chance of extending my stunning record of ineptitude on Saturdays this year.
When I lived in Annapolis, I’d often see Ken Niumatalolo around town. Some real college-town shit. Solid family man. All that wholesome stuff.
But I’m taking the Midshipmen not only for nostalgia, but because as Matt notes, Navy’s played a lot better than their record. That 27-20 loss to CFP-bound Cincinnati stands out. While Navy needed 10 fourth quarter points to bring it within a touchdown, it was also a three-point game at halftime, and they held Desmond Ridder to one of his worst games of the season.
I like Army, too, and think they’ve earned their 8-3 record and bowl appearance. But we’ve got two unconventional teams in a December rivalry game – I’ll take the points.
Andy’s Saturday pick: Navy (+7) over Army
NFL
Matt: I went 3-1 with my parlay last week, which doesn’t win but does boost my NFL record here at The Vigorish quite nicely. I’ll take it. Looking at this week’s slate, we’ve got a boatload of divisional games plus six games with spreads larger than a touchdown, so pretty much the opposite of what I’d usually prefer to bet.
Fortunately, there’s one game I like that doesn’t violate any of my rules: Tampa Bay giving 3.5 at home against Buffalo. The Bills are still treated by the sportsbooks like their 2020 iteration, but if you take away their Week 5 win against the Chiefs, they haven’t beaten anybody who currently sports a winning record. They’re 7-5 right now and I believe they’ll make the playoffs, but this isn’t a great team. The Bucs come into this at 9-3 and, in the immortal words of Dennis Green, are who we thought they were. The defense has a few kinks to work out, but the offense is humming along.
One thing that gives me pause: where the Bills are soft is their rush defense, and that’s also where the Bucs have failed to consistently produce. And I almost, almost worried about this being a bad positional matchup for Tampa, but then I remembered that Tom Brady is some 32-3 all-time against the Bills and I had a good laugh about it, because that’s insane. We’ll lay the points.
Matt’s Sunday pick: BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Bills
Andy: Welcome to fade the Cowboys SZN.
Dallas ended its losing streak last week thanks to a dysfunctional Saints team starting a 30-year-old tight end at QB without its best player. Dak Prescott did not play well, Tony Pollard got hurt, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 3.5 yards a carry, the pass catchers couldn’t open things up. The explosive offense from the start of the season is gone (minus a dismantling of Atlanta a month ago that I’m comfortable setting aside as an outlier).
The Washington Football Team, meanwhile, has quietly pulled itself into the playoff picture with a similar model as it used last year to win the NFC East and give the Bucs their toughest game in the playoffs.
They’ve won four straight games, including one against those same Bucs, but more important is the way they’ve done it. WFT came into the season with the expectation of having one of the best defenses in the league.
Then they allowed an average of 31 points a game in the first six weeks of the season. The winning formula for WFT never included Taylor Heinicke keeping pace in shootouts and putting up 30 per game. They were left for dead.
They’ve allowed 17 points a game in the last five weeks. Chase Young might be out for the year, but the defense everyone expected is back.
And yet, they’re getting 4.5 points, at home (if we’re comfortable calling that stadium a “home”) against a team that wilts every December? Don’t get it.
Andy’s Sunday pick: FOOTBALL TEAM (+4.5) over Cowboys
Keeping score:
Matt: 16-12
Andy: 9-12
What do you think of the picks? Leave a comment.