Week 13
Are you sitting down? You might want to sit down.
College Football
Matt: College football’s regular season has ended and I’m happy to share with you that I went 9-3 picking college games against the spread here at The Vigorish. I’m tooting my own horn about this now because making picks is about to get harder for me across the board for two reasons: first, we’re in the postseason now and there will be far fewer college games to pick from, and second, although I’ve gone an admirable 9-3 on the college side, my NFL record is a shameful 4-7. I’m not thrilled at the reality of my gravy train leaving the table and me being stuck with random-ass bowl games and the rest of the NFL season from here on out. My overall record will surely begin suffering this week, so my glorious 75% CFB win rate won’t buoy me or keep me warm at night for much longer.
Every conference plays its title game this weekend. I’m going to stay close to home and take San Diego State favored by 6 over Utah State in the Mountain West Championship. This is a classic high-powered offense meets dominating defense scenario, and I’m taking the defense. The Aztecs get after the quarterback as well as any G5 program in the country, and there’s no more surefire way to smother a pass-happy attack like USU’s than by getting consistent pressure with no more than your four down linemen the way SDSU does. On the opposite side, Utah State’s been soft against the run this season and running the ball is exactly what the Aztecs do best. I’d go so far as to say that San Diego State is just a quarterback away from being on par with Cincinnati in terms of trying to crash the New Year’s Six party.
SDSU’s also playing this one at “home,” a mere two-plus-hour bus ride to Carson while the new stadium gets built.
Matt’s Saturday pick: SAN DIEGO STATE (-6) over Utah State
Andy: No one wants to hear about your round of golf, your fantasy team or your bad beat, but if you’ve been here all year I figure there’s a decent chance you’ve started taking pleasure in watching me lose my ass every Saturday, so I’m going to guess you’ll indulge a bit of navel gazing.
I can’t begin to guess how much money I’ve lost betting on Michigan against Ohio State during the last 15 years. Of course when I finally changed sides, Harbaugh did the impossible and won a big game, taking my money with him. Bastard.
Oh well. It’s championship week, so it’s no surprise the lineup in front of us includes so many seemingly matched teams.
For instance, over in the American Athletic Conference, Houston’s defense has allowed just 290 yards per game this year, good for sixth in the nation, while Cincinnati has allowed just a tick more at 303 yards a game, eighth in the nation.
And on offense, the Cougars have racked up 422 yards a week, while Cincinnati has earned 430 yards every week. Points per game? Both are in the top ten in the nation again, with Houston scoring 38.8 per game and Cincinnati scoring 39.6 per game.
Hell of a matchup. And Cincinnati is giving 10.5 points. They’re at home, they’re playing for a spot in the College Football playoff, and they’ve won every game this season while Houston dropped one to Texas Tech back in early September.
I’ll take the 10.5 points in what looks like a fairly even matchup.
Andy’s Saturday pick: Houston (+10.5) over CINCINNATI
NFL
Matt: I mentioned my 4-7 record picking NFL games, right? That’s pretty bad. Almost feels like I’m on tilt. And what do we do when we’re on tilt? We go hog wild. That’s why I’m throwing a screwball this week and picking a four-game parlay. This means I’m going to pick four outcomes, and if I were physically located somewhere gambling is legal, I would get a 10-1 payout if I correctly pick all four. If I’m wrong about even one game, though, I lose. (For purposes of my record at The Vigorish I’m going to count each game individually unless Andy gets upset about it.) This is how you bust out of a slump. Well, no it isn’t, but I’m gonna feel so cool if I pull it off.
First, we’ve taking the Dolphins laying 4 at home against the Giants. The Dolphins? Suddenly the hottest team in football. The defense has been stout and Tua Tagovailoa has been a bit less lousy lately. The Giants? Just a bad team that’s bad at everything. They’re getting too much respect this week after beating a laughably up-and-down Eagles team at home.
Next we’ve got under 48 when the Jags visit the Rams. The Jags are bad. The Rams have lost three in a row. Is this a get-right game for LA? Feels like it. Can they run up the score? Stafford looks pretty ragged lately (and maybe hurt) so it says here they can’t run it up high enough to put us in danger.
We also like the Cardinals giving 7.5 at Chicago. The Cards are coming off a bye and are probably getting Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back. This has been a very good team all season, which is what you would only say on Opposite Day about the Bears. I’ve got nothing positive to offer about Chicago. The best thing they’ll have going for them this Sunday is the weather forecast. Snow might keep things close. Let’s hope not. Scratch this pick from the parlay if Murray or Hopkins don’t play.
Finally, we’re rolling with the 49ers minus 3 at Seattle. SF is hot and scoring a lot of points. Seems like everything’s clicked for them. The Seahawks look broken. It’s the kind of divisional game I normally swerve but we’re breaking all the rules today, baby.
Matt’s Sunday pick: Parlay (DOLPHINS -4 over Giants; Under 48, Jaguars vs. Rams; Cardinals -7.5 over BEARS; 49ers -3 over SEAHAWKS)
Andy: I need a second to think about what Matt did there.
It’s fine with me. In fact, I welcome it. If he loses, it’s on him. If he wins, we tout The Vigorish’s overall record. Why wouldn’t I go along with it?
The Bengals have the sixth best point differential in the NFL. Maybe it was the freakish loss to the Jets a week after blowing out the Ravens that blunted any public acknowledgement of how good they’ve been, or maybe it’s something else, but whatever the case they’re not being treated like the best team in the AFC North, which they clearly are.
The Chargers, meanwhile, simply haven't been very good, especially since their 4-1 start. Their -20 point differential on the season puts them in the bottom half of the league, below certified contenders like the Panthers and Seahawks. But we all want to believe that they’re about to turn the corner (I’ve bet as much twice, going 1-1 in the process), and it just keeps not happening.
And now they’re just three point dogs against the Bengals in Cincinnati. It seems so wrong, I almost want to take the Chargers, but I won’t.
Andy’s Sunday pick: BENGALS (-3) over Chargers
Matt:
Keeping score:
Matt: 13-10
Andy: 9-10
What do you think of the picks? Leave a comment.